benjamin aaron advisors · weekly edition
stellar times.
all you need to know about humanity’s journey to the moon, mars, and beyond
starship reaches orbit and drops off 26 starlink satellites
scrollfront page · starship flight 14
starship made it to orbit even after losing an engine
Ship 41 lost an engine on ascent, held for about 20 minutes, got a go for orbit, and deployed all 26 Starlink V3 satellites before an early, on-target Pacific splashdown.
Starship lifted off from Starbase at 7:48 a.m. CT on Monday, Sept. 28, its 14th flight and first orbital attempt. One ship engine shut down early. Engineers confirmed the engines needed for later burns were healthy, and the call came: go for orbit. A single Raptor fired for orbit insertion, a burn Starship had never done, and all 26 satellites deployed over about half an hour.
Because of the engine issue, the team cut the planned six-orbit flight short, flew a first deorbit burn from orbit, and splashed down north of Hawaii at 11:57 a.m. ET. At Stifel’s 2 Mbps busy-hour allowance, 26 Tbps could serve up to about 13 million subscribers, and it is about 1.2% of TeleGeography’s 2,259 Tbps of international internet bandwidth (BAA est.). SpaceX says service starts within a few weeks.
dig infold upthe hold, the burns, the timeline, and what is still open
context
One of the ship’s engines shut down early on ascent, and the webcast briefly said the ship would not reach orbit. Engineers then confirmed the three sea-level Raptors needed for later burns were healthy, and the call came: go for orbit.
A single Raptor, fed from the header tank in the nose, fired for orbit insertion, a burn Starship had never done. Deployment began about 34 minutes after liftoff and ran for roughly half an hour. SpaceX reports contact with every satellite over laser links, ground stations, and user terminals.
“All 26 Starlink V3 operational satellites deployed and operating nominally.”elon musk on x · 09/28/2026
The team cut the planned ~10 hour, six-orbit profile because of the ascent engine issue. The ship flew its first deorbit burn from orbit, then a flip and three-engine landing burn to a splashdown north of Hawaii at 11:57 a.m. ET. As usual for ocean landings, it tipped over and exploded afterward.
why it matters
Flight 14 checked off three firsts for Starship: sustained orbit, an operational payload with contact to all 26 satellites, and a deorbit burn from orbit with an on-target splashdown.
It also reached orbit after an engine loss on ascent, with a go given only once the engines needed for later burns checked out healthy.
the timeline
| 7:48 a.m. CT | liftoff from Starbase, Mon 09/28 (8:48 a.m. ET)SpaceX | SpaceX |
| ~T+25 min | orbit insertion burn, one Raptorreported | reported |
| T+34 min | Starlink V3 deploy startsreported | reported |
| ~T+64 min | deploy ends, all 26 outreported | reported |
| 11:57 a.m. ET | splashdown north of Hawaii, about 3 hours after liftoffreported | reported |
what to watch
- Satellite checkout. The V3s raise their orbits and run checkout. SpaceX says service starts within a few weeks.
- Ship catch at the tower. Open. Not attempted on Flight 14.
- Ship reuse. Open. Not attempted on Flight 14.
- Ship-to-ship propellant transfer. Open. The lunar and Mars dates depend on it.
sources · SpaceX Flight 14 page (09/28) · Spaceflight Now (09/28) · Space.com (09/28) · SpaceQ (09/28) · RTÉ / Reuters (09/28) · Musk on X (09/28)
getting to orbit
watch flight 14 go up, drop satellites, and come home
We rebuilt the flight in a physics simulation: gravity, air drag, Earth’s spin, and 33 plus 6 Raptors burning real amounts of propellant. Press a milestone to jump to it.
BAA physics model with rounded public vehicle figures. Liftoff, the orbit burn, the deploy, and splashdown follow reported times; other numbers are model outputs, and geography is illustrative.
dig infold upthe three burns, the math step by step, and how the model works
context
1. Safe path first. The ship’s first burn stops just short of orbit. Its path dips about 25 km below the surface, so if anything failed it would fall back on its own.
2. Go for orbit. After health checks, one Raptor fires from the header tank. About 57 m/s lifts the low point to +161 km and closes the orbit.
3. Come home. A roughly 100 m/s deorbit burn drops it back into the air. Belly-first through the heat, then a flip and three-engine landing burn.
why it matters
The orbit burn is small, under 1% of the ship’s speed in our model. It is the step that turns a safe suborbital path into an orbit, and SpaceX checked the health of the engines needed for later burns before committing to it.
the math, step by step
| speed to stay in orbit at 275 kmv = √(μ ÷ r) = √(398,600 ÷ 6,646)physics | v = √(μ ÷ r) = √(398,600 ÷ 6,646) | 7.74 km/s | physics |
| one lap of EarthT = 2π √(r³ ÷ μ)physics | T = 2π √(r³ ÷ μ) | ~90 minutes | physics |
| booster’s share of the job6,646 km/h at staging ÷ orbital speedBAA model | 6,646 km/h at staging ÷ orbital speed | ~24% of orbital speed | BAA model |
| rocket equation, both stagesΔv = Isp × g × ln(full ÷ empty)BAA model | Δv = Isp × g × ln(full ÷ empty) | ~3.0 + ~6.1 ≈ 9.1 km/s | BAA model |
| lost to gravity and air9.1 − (7.74 − 0.42 from Earth’s spin)BAA model | 9.1 − (7.74 − 0.42 from Earth’s spin) | ~1.8 km/s | BAA model |
| max-Q, peak air pressureq = ½ ρ v²BAA model | q = ½ ρ v² | ~27.6 kPa at T+0:54 | BAA model |
| the orbit burnvis-viva, raise low point from -25 to +161 kmBAA model | vis-viva, raise low point from -25 to +161 km | ~57 m/s, under 1% of speed | BAA model |
| the deorbit burndrop low point to -48 kmBAA model | drop low point to -48 km | ~100 m/s | BAA model |
| hardest part of reentrypeak heating ∝ √ρ × v³BAA model | peak heating ∝ √ρ × v³ | ~76 km, ~24,275 km/h, ~1.9 g | BAA model |
BAA physics model: a two-dimensional simulation in 0.1 second steps with inverse-square gravity, an exponential atmosphere, Earth’s rotation, and engine thrust that rises as the air thins. Vehicle figures are rounded public estimates (about 4,180 t booster and 1,810 t ship fueled, 26 V3s at about 2 t each). Liftoff, the ~T+25 minute orbit burn, the T+34 to 64 minute deploy, and the 11:57 a.m. ET splashdown follow reported times. Other times and numbers are model outputs. The ground track is a flat slice, so geography is illustrative.
sources · BAA physics model (09/2026) · reported event times: SpaceX Flight 14 page (09/28) · Spaceflight Now (09/28) · Space.com (09/28)
starlink v3
one starship launch adds as much internet as ten falcon 9s
Each V3 is designed for 1 Tbps down, enough for about 500,000 subscribers at a 2 Mbps busy-hour allowance (BAA est.). SpaceX says one Starship load of V3s moves about as much bandwidth as ten Falcon 9 launches of the older V2 Mini, and a full Starship is planned to carry up to 60.
Those are design numbers. Each satellite still has to raise its orbit and pass checkout, and satellites over oceans and empty land serve no one, so treat 13 million subscribers as a ceiling.
dig infold uphow a v3 moves data, how we turn terabits into people, and the caveats
context
Each V3 is designed for 1 Tbps down. Flight 14’s 26 satellites carry roughly 26 Tbps of design downlink, and a fully loaded Starship is planned to carry up to 60 V3s. Analyst Sawyer Merritt put Flight 14’s addition at about 3% of the whole constellation’s capacity. Starpath’s math lands in the same place, at about 0.11% of network capacity per V3.
How a V3 moves your data. Phased array antennas steer 2,048 downlink and 2,048 uplink beams electronically, with no moving dish. V2 had 192 and 144. Six optical links at 400 Gbps each pass traffic from satellite to satellite, so data can cross an ocean without touching the ground. About 1.2 Tbps of radio links across Ka, E, V, and W bands connect to ground gateways and the wider internet.
How we turn terabits into people. Networks sell 100 Mbps plans and plan for far less per home at the busiest hour, because not everyone streams at once. Stifel uses 2 Mbps per subscriber, a 50:1 ratio. 1 Tbps divided by 2 Mbps is 500,000.
why it matters
One Starship load moves about as much bandwidth as ten Falcon 9 launches of the older V2 Mini, per SpaceX. Starlink capacity growth now rides on how often Starship flies. Reuters reports analysts see each batch worth hundreds of millions of dollars in projected revenue.
the numbers
| 1 Tbps | design downlink per V3 satelliteSpaceX | SpaceX |
| ~26 Tbps | Flight 14, 26 V3sSpaceX | SpaceX |
| ~60 Tbps | a full Starship, 60 V3splanned | planned |
| ~2.6 Tbps | one Falcon 9 load of V2 Mini, from SpaceX’s ten-to-one comparisonBAA calc | BAA calc |
| 2,048 | downlink beams per V3, vs 192 on V2Starpath, Converge Digest | Starpath, Converge Digest |
| 6 × 400 Gbps | laser links per V3reported | reported |
| ~500,000 | subscribers per V3 at 2 Mbps busy-hourBAA est. | BAA est. |
| ~1.2% | of 2,259 Tbps international internet bandwidthBAA est., TeleGeography | BAA est., TeleGeography |
| ~0.3% | of 8,000+ Tbps of all used cross-border capacity, incl. private cloud networksBAA est., TeleGeography | BAA est., TeleGeography |
what to watch
- Checkout. Each satellite still has to unfold antennas and arrays, link up by radio and laser, raise and circularize its orbit, and pass checkout. SpaceX says service starts within a few weeks.
- Real service. It depends on where the satellites sit, ground gateways, and demand. Satellites spend much of each orbit over oceans and empty land, so 13 million subscribers is an upper bound.
sources · SpaceX Flight 14 page (09/28) · Starpath (09/28) · Converge Digest (09/28) · Light Reading (09/28) · Basenor, citing Sawyer Merritt (09/2026) · Reuters (09/28) · TeleGeography (2025, 2026) · Stifel, Satcoms Muskonomics (06/2024)
ai · compute
anthropic doubles its spacex ai deal to $84.5b and can exit on 90 days notice
Up to $84.5B through 2029 for Nvidia-based compute, most of it cancelable on 90 days notice.
Anthropic expects to spend at least $518B over ten years on AI infrastructure with six partners, about 80% of it owed regardless of use, according to its confidential IPO prospectus as reported by Reuters on Sept. 29. The SpaceX deal is the flexible one: up to $84.5B, up from about $45B, and most of it can be ended with 90 days notice. The capacity traces to Colossus 1, a SpaceX facility with more than 220,000 Nvidia GPUs on over 300 MW. Walking away would cost roughly $3.75B, one quarter of rent at the old $1.25B a month (BAA est.).
dig infold upthe filing, the partners, what the rent works out to, and the exit cost
context
The figures come from Anthropic’s confidential IPO prospectus as reported by Reuters on Sept. 29. Anthropic expects to spend at least $518B over ten years on AI infrastructure with six partners. About 80% of that is non-cancelable or owed regardless of use.
SpaceX’s own IPO paperwork had described about $45B, or $1.25B a month for three years. The new figure is up to $84.5B, and most of it can be ended with 90 days written notice. The capacity traces to May 2026, when Anthropic took exclusive use of Colossus 1, a SpaceX facility with more than 220,000 Nvidia GPUs on over 300 MW. SPCX shares rose about 3% on the report.
How a compute lease works. A data center packs GPUs, power, and cooling. The AI lab pays a monthly rate for reserved capacity, used for training models or for inference, meaning answering users. Take-or-pay deals bill the full amount no matter what. A 90-day cancel clause lets the renter walk with a quarter’s notice.
why it matters
Most of Anthropic’s $518B plan is take-or-pay. The SpaceX line is the flexible piece: it is largely cancelable on a quarter’s notice, so it is the commitment that can shrink fastest.
commitments by partner, and the math
| $161.2B | Broadcom, equipment leasesReuters | Reuters |
| $111.1B | GoogleReuters | Reuters |
| $110.0B | AmazonReuters | Reuters |
| up to $84.5B | SpaceX / xAI compute, largely cancelable on 90 days noticeReuters | Reuters |
| $31.4B | MicrosoftReuters | Reuters |
| $1.25B a month | the old deal: $45B ÷ 36 monthsSpaceX IPO filing | SpaceX IPO filing |
| 1.9x | the new ceiling vs the old: $84.5B ÷ $45BBAA calc | BAA calc |
| ~$7.80 | rent per GPU-hour: $1.25B ÷ 220,000 GPUs ÷ 730 hoursBAA est. | BAA est. |
| ~1.4 kW | power per GPU, incl. cooling and networking: 300 MW ÷ 220,000BAA est. | BAA est. |
| ~$50M | rent per MW a year: $1.25B × 12 ÷ 300 MWBAA est. | BAA est. |
| ~$3.75B | cost to walk away: 90 days × $1.25B a monthBAA est. | BAA est. |
| ~$414B | owed regardless of use elsewhere: 80% × $518BBAA calc | BAA calc |
| ~$52B a year | spend across all partners: $518B ÷ 10 yearsBAA calc | BAA calc |
The per-GPU figures assume the $1.25B a month maps entirely to Colossus 1, and that 220,000 GPUs and 300 MW are the floors reported. Real pricing is not public, so treat these as a sense of scale. 730 is the average hours in a month.
what to watch
- The 90-day cancel clause. Walking away would cost roughly $3.75B, one quarter of rent at the old rate (BAA est.).
- The filing itself. These numbers come from a confidential prospectus seen by Reuters, not a public document.
sources · Reuters via Investing.com (09/29) · The Information via Techmeme (09/29) · Stocktwits (09/29) · Crypto Briefing (09/29)
tesla · spacex
tesla and spacex keep getting closer, with no merger filed
Musk and Gwynne Shotwell keep describing more overlap between the companies, and neither has announced or filed a merger agreement. On Sept. 29, SEC staff cleared Tesla’s voluntary retail voting program, which lets holders opt into voting with the board, with or without mergers carved out. The real signals to watch are a proxy filing, a special committee, or a definitive agreement.
dig infold upwhat musk and shotwell said, how the new voting option works, and the odds
context
At the All-In Summit on Sept. 15, asked why Tesla and SpaceX stay separate, Musk said:
“With all this collaboration, on so many levels, who can imagine what action one might take when there’s so much close collaboration in so many areas.”elon musk · all-in summit · 09/15/2026
Gwynne Shotwell said the businesses are integrating “faster than I thought.” On the July 22 Tesla call, Musk described “more and more overlap” and said any combination needs “the appropriate process.” Neither company has announced or filed a merger agreement.
How Tesla’s new voting option works. SEC staff issued a no-action letter on Sept. 29 for Tesla’s voluntary retail voting program. Retail holders can opt into a standing instruction to vote with the board, on all matters or on all except contested director elections and mergers. It is free, can be overridden per proposal or canceled anytime, and comes with an annual reminder. Other issuers can use the same framework.
why it matters
The SEC letter does not mention SpaceX. Its effect on any future deal depends on how many holders pick “all matters” over the version that carves out mergers.
the odds and the merger math
| ~20% | odds of a merger announcement before the end of 2026FinanceFeeds | FinanceFeeds |
| 66% | Kalshi odds of a merger before 2028Teslarati | Teslarati |
| ~39.0% | premium needed for a $2T Tesla value (CEO award tranche 1)FinanceFeeds est. | FinanceFeeds est. |
| ~39.9% | premium at which Tesla holders own 50% of the combined companyFinanceFeeds est. | FinanceFeeds est. |
The two premium thresholds sit about one point apart. FinanceFeeds calculation, Sept. 2026. Estimate only.
what to watch
- A proxy filing.
- A special committee.
- A definitive merger agreement.
sources · Sullivan & Cromwell (09/29) · Bloomberg Law (09/29) · Electrek (09/29) · All-In Summit (09/15) · FinanceFeeds (09/2026) · IBTimes UK (09/2026) · Teslarati (09/2026)
the next few weeks
what’s launching next
| thu 10/01 | Crew-13 to the ISS, 11:10 a.m. ET. SpaceX target. |
| mon 10/19 | H3 · MMX, JAXA’s mission to the Martian moon Phobos. Target. |
| october | Starlink V3 checkout, then service within a few weeks. SpaceX. |
| tbd | Starship Flight 15. No SpaceX date yet. |
| mid-2027 | Artemis III, crewed Orion docking practice with a lander in Earth orbit. NASA target. |
dig infold upthe full calendar, flight 15, and one environmental finding
context
Starship Flight 15. SpaceX has not given a date. An Oct. 19 FAA air traffic planning date was reported, and trackers now show TBD; Next Spaceflight lists no earlier than October 2026. Ship 42 and Booster 22 are assigned. Musk said the first attempt to catch the ship with the tower arms comes on Flight 15 if Flight 14 went well. The catch needs a full-duration flight and FAA approval.
Also this week. The Federal Register published a Finding of No Significant Impact for Relativity’s Terran R at Cape Canaveral on Sept. 28. A FONSI is an environmental finding, not a launch license.
the full calendar
| thu 10/01 | Crew-13 to the ISS, 11:10 a.m. ETSpaceX target | SpaceX target |
| thu 10/01 | Transporter 18 rideshare, VandenbergTarget | Target |
| 10/05 | SDA Tranche 1 Transport Layer A, military data relay satellitesTarget | Target |
| mon 10/19 | H3 · Martian Moons eXploration (MMX), JAXA’s mission to PhobosTarget | Target |
| october | Starlink V3 checkout and orbit raising, then service within a few weeksSpaceX | SpaceX |
| tbd | Starship Flight 15. No SpaceX dateno date | no date |
| by 12/31 | New Glenn return to flight after the May 28 pad explosionCompany target | Company target |
| mid-2027 | Artemis III, crewed Orion docks with a lander in Earth orbit, no landingNASA target | NASA target |
| 2028 | Artemis IV, the first Artemis crewed landing. Lander provider not yet chosenNASA target | NASA target |
what to watch
- A SpaceX date for Flight 15. The Oct. 19 date is an FAA air traffic planning date, not a SpaceX announcement.
- Crew-13 on Thursday, and the V3 checkout through October.
sources · launch calendars: UchUchU, SpaceNexus (10/2026) · Next Spaceflight (Flight 15) · T-Minus Zero (Flight 15) · Gizmodo, citing the FAA planning date (09/29) · Musk on a Flight 15 catch attempt, via Investing News · Blue Origin, Space.com (New Glenn) · Federal Register (09/28) · NASA Artemis · NASA Artemis architecture update
the last word · every week
ben’s countdown to mars
Our better-than-nothing guess at when a person first stands on Mars, and every step that has to happen first.
| # | milestone and what it proves | date | countdown | odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Booster caught by the launch tower10/13/2024Super Heavy can come home and be reused fast. SpaceX Flight 5.launches: 1 | 10/13/2024 | ✓ | done |
| 02 | Raptor engine relit in space11/19/2024The ship can fire its engines on command in orbit, needed for every deorbit and transfer burn. SpaceX Flight 6.launches: 1 | 11/19/2024 | ✓ | done |
| 03 | A flown booster flies again05/27/2025Boosters are reusable hardware, not throwaway stages. SpaceX Flight 9.launches: 1 | 05/27/2025 | ✓ | done |
| 04 | First orbital Starship and first V3 Starlink deploy09/28/2026The ship can reach orbit, do real work, and come back on target. SpaceX Flight 14.launches: 1 | 09/28/2026 | ✓ | done |
| 05 | Ship caught by the launch tower03/20/2027The upper stage can come back whole, so it can fly again. BAA est..launches: 2 to 3 more test flights first | 03/20/2027 | 172 days | low |
| 06 | First tanker Starship flies05/20/2027A stripped-down ship built only to carry propellant, the workhorse of every refill. BAA est..launches: 1 | 05/20/2027 | 233 days | low |
| 07 | Artemis III: crewed Orion docks with a lander in Earth orbit06/30/2027People and Starship working together in space. NASA target mid-2027.launches: 1 Starship plus NASA's SLS rocket | 06/30/2027 | 274 days | medium |
| 08 | A caught ship flies again08/15/2027Both stages reused, which is what makes dozens of tanker flights affordable. BAA est..launches: 1 | 08/15/2027 | 320 days | low |
| 09 | Ship-to-ship propellant transfer in orbit10/15/2027Two ships dock and move super-cold propellant, the key that unlocks both the Moon and Mars. BAA est..launches: 2, a few days apart | 10/15/2027 | 381 days | low |
| 10 | Starship launching about weekly from Texas and Florida01/15/2028Refilling needs many launches in a short span, so two coasts and fast pad turnaround matter. BAA est..launches: about 4 a month | 01/15/2028 | 473 days | low |
| 11 | Propellant kept cold in orbit for weeks03/01/2028Boil-off is under control, so fuel waits in orbit while the next tankers arrive. BAA est..launches: 1 to 2 | 03/01/2028 | 519 days | low |
| 12 | Orbital depot filled by a string of tankers06/15/2028A gas station in orbit that can top off a Moon or Mars ship. BAA est..launches: about 10+ tankers in roughly 6 weeks (BAA est.) | 06/15/2028 | 625 days | low |
| 13 | First uncrewed Starship landing on the Moon10/15/2028Landing a Starship on another world after refilling in orbit. BAA est..launches: 1 lander plus about 10+ tankers | 10/15/2028 | 747 days | low |
| 14 | First uncrewed Starships launch for Mars12/15/2028Hitting a Mars launch window with several fully refilled ships. BAA est. (late-2028 window).launches: 2 to 4 ships, each needing several tanker flights | 12/15/2028 | 808 days | low |
| 15 | First Starship lands on Mars07/15/2029Entry, descent, and landing in thin Martian air. BAA est. (~7-month trip).launches: 0 (already on the way) | 07/15/2029 | 1,020 days | low |
| 16 | First crew lands on the Moon in a Starship11/15/2029Starship can carry people down to another world and back up. BAA est..launches: 1 lander, 1 crew rocket, about 10+ tankers | 11/15/2029 | 1,143 days | low |
| 17 | Second Mars wave: power, propellant plant, and more cargo launch02/20/2031Sending the factory that makes the fuel home. BAA est. (early-2031 window).launches: about 4+ ships and dozens of tankers | 02/20/2031 | 1,605 days | low |
| 18 | Power and propellant-plant hardware lands on Mars09/15/2031The hardware survives landing and can be set up without people. BAA est..launches: 0 (already on the way) | 09/15/2031 | 1,812 days | low |
| 19 | First rocket propellant made on Mars08/01/2032Methane and oxygen from Martian CO2 and ice, so a ship can fly home. BAA est..launches: 0 | 08/01/2032 | 2,133 days | low |
| 20 | Third Mars wave: habitats, spare ships, and supplies launch04/20/2033Everything the first crew needs is waiting before they leave. BAA est. (spring-2033 window).launches: about 4+ ships and dozens of tankers | 04/20/2033 | 2,395 days | low |
| 21 | Crew lives aboard a Starship in Earth orbit for months06/01/2034Life support, radiation shelter, and health hold up for a trip-length stay. BAA est..launches: 1 to 2 plus tankers | 06/01/2034 | 2,802 days | low |
| 22 | First crew launches for Mars07/10/2035People leave Earth on a fully refilled ship. BAA est. (mid-2035 window).launches: crew ship plus cargo ships and dozens of tankers | 07/10/2035 | 3,206 days | low |
| 23 | First human steps onto Mars01/20/2036The whole chain works end to end. BAA est. (~6-month trip).launches: 0 (already on the way) | 01/20/2036 | 3,400 days | low |
moved this week: first human now 01/20/2036, plus 5 other dates. Tap for why.
- First human on Mars moved from 09/12/2033 to 01/20/2036. Once we listed every step (ship catch and reflight, a tanker ship, a filled depot, weeks of cold storage, and a working fuel plant on Mars), they did not fit before the spring-2033 window, so the first crew moves to the mid-2035 window.
- First crew launch moved from 04/12/2033 to 07/10/2035 for the same reason.
- Ship-to-ship propellant transfer moved from 12/18/2026 to 10/15/2027, after a tanker version of the ship has flown.
- Ship catch moved from 02/15/2027 to 03/20/2027, allowing 2 to 3 more test flights first.
- Uncrewed Moon landing moved from 03/15/2027 to 10/15/2028, after a depot can be filled.
- First Mars cargo launch moved from 11/07/2028 to 12/15/2028 to sit inside the late-2028 window; first Mars landing moved from 06/05/2029 to 07/15/2029 to match.
How to read it: dates marked BAA est. are our own guesses, not SpaceX or NASA commitments. The odds tag is our confidence that the date holds within about three months. Mars dates follow real launch windows, which open about every 26 months (late 2028, early 2031, spring 2033, mid 2035), so a slip usually costs about two years, not a few weeks. The launches line is our rough count of flights each step needs; one Mars ship alone needs several tanker flights to refill before it can leave Earth orbit. Almost everything after Flight 14 depends on refilling ships in orbit, which has not been done yet.
sources · SpaceX Flight 14 page (09/28) · Spaceflight Now (09/28) · Space.com (09/28) · Reuters (09/28, 09/29) · TeleGeography (2026) · Stifel, Satcoms Muskonomics (06/2024) · Sullivan & Cromwell, Bloomberg Law (09/29) · launch calendars (10/2026). Photos: SpaceX. Flight animation: BAA physics model. Countdown dates: BAA estimates except where marked.